Bet On Crypto

Bitcoin Aims Higher, but Trump’s Tariff Offensive Throws a Wrench in the Rally: Could the Administration “TACO” Again?

Rising geopolitical tension between the United States and China, renewed tariff measures from President Donald Trump, and cautious positioning from overleveraged Bitcoin traders are combining to keep BTC prices under pressure.

As relations between Washington and Beijing deteriorate, Trump’s expanding tariff policy is fueling global trade uncertainty. Meanwhile, market data show Bitcoin traders avoiding aggressive long positions — a signal that caution is dominating sentiment.

Analysts warn that Bitcoin could briefly fall below the $100,000 level, though many expect next week’s macroeconomic developments to steady the market and potentially restart the uptrend.

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Market Still Searching for Balance

After last week’s sharp correction, Bitcoin’s structure suggests a search for equilibrium. Yet renewed trade hostilities and the record length of the U.S. government shutdown are discouraging bullish investors, particularly in futures markets.

Even so, several indicators remain positive: spot Bitcoin ETF inflows are rising, and both the Coinbase Premium Index and cumulative volume delta (CVD) — which tracks the balance between market buys and sells — have trended upward since BTC dropped to about $107,000 on October 10.

U.S. retail and institutional investors continue accumulating Bitcoin, while Binance perpetual futures traders are heavily shorting. Comparing Binance’s spot and futures volumes shows a positive spot delta (more buyers than sellers) but a negative perpetuals delta, confirming that short-driven selling is reinforcing the downtrend. The key support zone holds between $107,000 and $108,000, where spot demand remains firm.

Liquidation Zones Map the Next Move

Liquidation heatmaps from Binance, Bybit, and BitMEX show momentum traders may target long-liquidation zones between $106,300 and $104,000, while short positions could face liquidations if Bitcoin climbs toward $115,000.

Quinn Thompson, CIO of Lekker Capital, noted that the October 10 liquidation event “cleared more leverage — both in dollars and as a share of open interest — than the entire January to April 2025 period,” hinting at a major market reset.

Macro-focused trader Tom Capital added, “Just trade the price action,” as next week’s economic calendar is packed with potential catalysts.

Fundamentals Could Lead the Next Breakout

Despite ongoing volatility driven by macro uncertainty and futures selling, consistent accumulation from spot investors suggests that Bitcoin’s next major move could emerge from fundamentals — not fear.

Simonas Brazionis

Blockchain Expert

Simonas is a crypto and blockchain expert with 6 years of experience. Passionate about the industry he educates others on blockchain technology, and continuously expands his knowledge. He has helped many newcomers understand crypto, navigate investments, and stay informed about trends like DeFi and NFTs.