Prediction Market Bets on New Jersey Elections Yield Big Gains

In a standout moment on election night, prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi demonstrated their accuracy by forecasting major U.S. election outcomes, including the New Jersey governor’s race. Despite the unexpected nature of some results, these platforms had already predicted the outcome months in advance, offering bettors lucrative opportunities.

One notable bet was placed on New Jersey Democrat Mikie Sherrill, where Polymarket had odds of just 1.1% for her to win by a 12–15% margin. That’s exactly how the race turned out, with Sherrill winning by 13.1%, earning some Polymarket users tens of thousands of dollars in returns. A $100 bet placed early in the morning could have netted nearly $10,000.

As Sherrill’s victory margin was a surprise to many political commentators, it proved that prediction markets can correctly assess outcomes when polls may fail. Some users managed to cash out for more than $120,000 after betting on the right victory margin in the market.

Although Polymarket and Kalshi were able to predict the results with impressive accuracy, traditional polling had Sherrill leading by just 12% — close but still off the mark. This highlights how predictive markets can be an alternative to traditional polling methods, offering insights ahead of time that others miss.

For the most part, Polymarket users bet on outcomes they had already anticipated, but this particular race was a prime example of how these platforms can deliver massive returns when the result defies conventional wisdom.

The results of this election prove that prediction markets are a useful tool for forecasting political outcomes with higher accuracy than traditional methods. With large payouts available for those who bet wisely, prediction markets will likely continue to rise in popularity in the coming years, reshaping how we understand elections and markets.