TD Cowen Lowers Nakamoto Price Target Amid Bitcoin Outlook Adjustment
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Written by
Simonas Brazionis - Updated 2026-07-29 18:31:24
TD Cowen has revised its valuation for Nakamoto, a bitcoin treasury company, citing the impact of bitcoin's price decline on the company's debt-heavy capital structure. Despite this, the firm has maintained its Buy rating for the company.
Revised Price Target and Bitcoin Projections
Analysts Lance Vitanza and Jonnathan Navarrete of TD Cowen have lowered their split-adjusted price target for Nasdaq-listed Nakamoto Inc. (NAKA) to $17. This new target still indicates a potential upside of approximately 275% from NAKA's current trading price. Nakamoto underwent a 1-for-40 reverse stock split in May, making TD Cowen's previous target of $1 equivalent to $40 on the current basis. The updated $17 price target represents a 58% reduction from that prior outlook.
TD Cowen's revised projections are based on an assumption that bitcoin could reach $100,000 by the end of 2026. This figure is roughly 25% below bitcoin's all-time high of $126,000 recorded in October of the previous year. The firm also anticipates that Nakamoto will halt further bitcoin purchases until 2027. The analysts emphasized that bitcoin holdings remain the primary determinant of Nakamoto's value.
Nakamoto's Current Holdings and Strategic Adjustments
Nakamoto currently possesses 4,467 BTC, valued at around $290 million, positioning it as the 22nd-largest publicly traded bitcoin holder according to Bitcoin Treasuries. TD Cowen also views Nakamoto's recent balance sheet adjustments favorably, which include the repayment of approximately $45 million in debt, the extension of $105 million in principal until June 2027, a reduction in borrowing costs, and the authorization of a share repurchase program up to $25 million.
The firm additionally highlighted Nakamoto's recent completion of the divestiture of its legacy healthcare clinics, with a current focus on bitcoin media, asset management, and advisory services. NAKA was trading at $4.65 on Monday, experiencing a decline of over 4.5% for the day. The stock has seen a decrease of more than 71% this year, in contrast to bitcoin's approximately 26% decline over the same period.
