Bitcoin bear market ends, indicator shows recovery
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Written by
Simonas Brazionis - Updated 2026-08-30 08:53:58
A composite price indicator has registered a bullish flip, signaling the conclusion of the Bitcoin bear market. This marks the first such shift since October 2025. The positive reading on CryptoQuant’s Bull/Bear Market Cycle Indicator suggests an end to the 2026 Bitcoin bear market, as noted by CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju.
The indicator recorded a positive value of 0.042, mirroring a bull-market recovery signal observed in early 2023. However, concerns persist regarding insufficient market liquidity to sustain a broader BTC price trend reversal.
Understanding the Bull/Bear Market Cycle Indicator
CryptoQuant’s Bull/Bear Market Cycle Indicator is derived from the P&L Index, measuring its deviation from its 365-day moving average. The P&L Index integrates several on-chain profitability metrics, including the market value to realized value (MVRV) ratio, net unrealized profit/loss (NUPL), and the spent output profit ratio (SOPR).
These metrics collectively illustrate the realized and unrealized profits and losses of Bitcoin investors. Positive values for the Bull/Bear indicator signify bullish phases in the BTC price cycle, indicating improved profitability. The indicator registered its lowest point on February 5, when BTC/USD reached $60,000, corresponding to a reading of -1.244, categorizing it as “extreme bear” conditions.
Market Skepticism and Future Outlook
Despite these signals, skepticism regarding Bitcoin’s price strength continues. While other indicators, such as the relative strength index (RSI), have shown bullish signs similar to those at the close of 2022, market participants are not in full agreement that recent upside definitively marks the end of the macro downtrend.
Previous reports have highlighted concerns about a lack of demand potentially leading to a BTC/USD price reversal, with multiple liquidity barriers positioned above the current spot price. Market analyst Rekt Capital stated that the August monthly close would be crucial for the recovery’s trajectory, specifically referencing a potential breakout from a downward-sloping resistance trend line that has been in place since October of the previous year.
