Altcoin Season on the Horizon? Key Dominance Indicators Reach Historic Support Levels

Several important metrics tracking the market share of altcoins—excluding Ethereum and stablecoins—have reached levels that historically signal the start of major altcoin rallies.

One such metric, which measures the combined market share of all altcoins except stablecoins, has fallen to 28.4%, hovering just above its historic support zone of 24% to 25.3%. Past market cycles show that this zone has often acted as a springboard for strong altcoin rallies, especially when Bitcoin dominance was high and stablecoin inflows indicated sidelined capital ready to re-enter the market.

Whenever this threshold was tested, including in 2018, 2020, and 2021, altcoins bounced back sharply and frequently outperformed Bitcoin in the following weeks.

A second key indicator focuses on altcoins excluding Ethereum, providing a clearer picture of the wider altcoin market. This metric currently stands at 18.92%, slightly above its longstanding support level of 18%.

Historically, dropping below the 18% level has been uncommon but often preceded times when Bitcoin lost market share quickly to altcoins. This metric also highlights Ethereum’s strong influence in the altcoin sector, as excluding it significantly reduces the total altcoin market share and reveals the market’s reliance on ETH.

While these support levels don’t guarantee a breakout, they are statistically meaningful signals that altcoins may be approaching a turning point. According to Alphractal, such conditions have often come before altcoin seasons, creating potential opportunities for investors to shift into undervalued or overlooked altcoins.

The timing is especially important as Bitcoin remains near cycle highs. If Bitcoin’s price stalls or pulls back, historical trends suggest capital may flow into altcoins, potentially sparking broader market momentum beyond the top tokens.