Bitcoin Climbs to $109.7K, But Pro Traders Remain Skeptical of BTC’s Momentum

Bitcoin pushed past $109,000 on Wednesday after briefly testing the $105,200 support level earlier. The rally coincided with signs of monetary expansion in the eurozone and weakness in the U.S. labor market.

Despite Bitcoin’s price being only 2% below its all-time high, professional traders are reluctant to adopt a bullish stance, according to Bitcoin derivatives metrics. This caution has raised doubts about the longevity of the rally.

On Wednesday, Bitcoin futures premiums stayed below the 5% neutral mark, indicating a lack of enthusiasm in the futures market. The slight increase from 4% on Monday continued a trend that began on June 11, when the premium briefly touched bullish territory as Bitcoin tested $110,000.

While it's difficult to pinpoint a single cause for Bitcoin’s price increase, the eurozone’s record-high money supply (M2) in April likely played a significant role. The data, which showed a 2.7% year-over-year expansion, mirrors trends in the U.S. monetary base. Additionally, ADP data revealed a drop of 33,000 private payrolls in June, highlighting weakness in the U.S. labor market.

Some market participants argue that the muted demand for leveraged long positions in Bitcoin reflects growing concerns about global economic risks, including the ongoing trade war. U.S. President Donald Trump has threatened to raise import tariffs on Japanese goods above 30% if no agreement is reached before the July 9 deadline. This threat has added to global uncertainty.

Looking at Bitcoin’s options markets, the 25% delta skew metric stands at 0%, indicating a balanced view on the potential for price movement. This neutral stance in the options market aligns with the lukewarm sentiment seen at the $109,000 price level but still shows an improvement from the bearish sentiment on June 22.

Despite Bitcoin’s three-week high, demand for cryptocurrencies in China has decreased, reflected in a steep discount for Tether (USDT) relative to the U.S. dollar exchange rate. This discount, currently at 1%, is the largest since mid-May, suggesting that Chinese investors are not confident in Bitcoin’s recent gains.

Traders are also concerned about the fallout from the ongoing tariff war, with $342 million in net outflows from spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) on Tuesday. This decline in activity within the derivatives market is in line with broader macroeconomic uncertainty.