Bitcoin Crash Signals 2016-Style Bull Run, Says Expert Peter Brandt

Bitcoin's decline since the April 2024 halving is beginning to show patterns reminiscent of the market movements leading up to the 2016 bull run, according to veteran trader Peter Brandt.

In a post on August 5, Brandt mentioned that the recent Bitcoin decline is now comparable to the 2015-2017 halving bull market cycle. He pointed out the similarities in the depth of market corrections following the halving dates.

In 2016, Bitcoin’s halving took place on July 9, with the price at $650 on that day. During that cycle, the market dropped to a low of $474 within a month, marking a 27% decline. However, it later skyrocketed to a peak of $20,000 in December 2017.

Similarly, Bitcoin recently dipped below $50,000, representing a 26% decrease from the post-halving price of $64,962. Despite this, some analysts warn that Bitcoin could fall even lower.

On August 5, Bitcoin's price plunged to $49,221, according to CoinGecko. It has declined by 20% since reaching $70,000 in late July. Nevertheless, it showed signs of recovery by reclaiming $56,000 during early trading in Asia on August 6.

ITC Crypto founder Benjamin Cowen noted in a post on August 5 that the current pattern is similar to 2019. That year, the markets surged in the first half but experienced a significant correction in the second half.

Tim Kravchunovsky, the founder and CEO of the decentralized telecommunications network Chirp, commented that crypto assets could potentially recover more swiftly than other risk assets, as they did in 2020. He explained that the massive sell-off was not specific to crypto but driven by macroeconomic factors.

“Over the coming hours and days, we may well see a decoupling of crypto from traditional stocks, similar to what we saw in 2020.”

He elaborated that during the pandemic-driven collapse, crypto staged a much faster and more pronounced recovery than traditional stock markets. He suggested that we might witness a similar recovery this time around as well.