BTC Weekly Technical Analysis by Mako Sharks

Bitcoin kicks off its week at 87.9k! Bitcoin is trading quietly, moving sideways over the Christmas week and continuing to stall around the daily 21SMA, while both Stoch and RSI remain in the negative region, with the Previous Week High (PWH) 90.5k / Previous Week Low (PWL) 86.3k range narrowing, suggesting a decisive move is approaching. The cryptoverse was left without a “Santa rally” and the Hopium flame is fading; Can the Bulls show their horns and attempt to attack and potentially reclaim the daily 55EMA and the May low at 93.4k in order to ignite Hopium spark, or will the Bears once again ride with the Nazgûl into year-end, sweeping Sell Side Liquidity (SSL) below the November low at 80.6k and opening the door to the 70k zone?! 🦌 ☕️ 🤭

Bulls on thin ice heading into the year close! Bulls continue to struggle to gain momentum, and in order to show any real strength and reignite the Hopium spark, the first step is a successful reclaim of the daily 55EMA and the May low at 93.4k. Only then would they even have a chance for a potential further expansion toward the weekly 55EMA and the June low at 98.3k. Failure to reclaim the 93k/95k zone would only confirm weakness and signal another leg down. For Bulls and Hopium alike, it is crucial to defend the November low at 80.6k on a daily close basis throughout the week, although the odds are thin, it’s not impossible. 🍭 😎 🎆

Crucial for the Bears is to secure any successful daily close below the November low at 80.6k, which would mark a new capitulation phase and a fresh downside move for Bitcoin, potentially into one or even two lower zones. Historically, every Bitcoin bear market has first been accompanied by a drawdown of roughly 50%, while we are currently sitting at approximately a 36% decline. Only after a ~50% drop has Bitcoin typically delivered a more meaningful bear market rally before rolling into another leg down. Bitcoin continues its selloff following the Fed meetings and rate cuts and is still failing to show genuine positive signals. A move into the 70k zone would put the April low at 74.4k under direct pressure, which stands as the last line in the sand before Bitcoin completes a full ~50% drawdown somewhere in the 60k region, slightly below the 2021 ATH at 68.9k. 🛷 🎩 🛑