Can Bitcoin Break Its Conference Jinx at This Week’s Las Vegas Event?

Bitcoin has been performing strongly in recent weeks, but historically, conferences have often triggered sell-offs or price drops afterward.

As Bitcoin approaches this week’s Bitcoin Conference in Las Vegas, trading near an all-time high of around $109,000, traders and analysts are keeping a close eye to see if the usual post-conference slump will repeat. Galaxy Research reviewed data from five previous conferences—from San Francisco in 2019 to Nashville in 2024—and found a recurring pattern of weak price action both during and especially after these events.

For example, the 2019 conference saw Bitcoin drop 10% during the event and then fall 24% in the following month. The 2022 Miami conference followed a similar pattern, with a 1% dip during the conference and a sharp 29% decline afterward. It’s important to note that both of these years were within bear markets. Even in more bullish years like 2023, Bitcoin’s price movement remained mostly flat or slightly negative.

At the 2024 Nashville conference, where Donald Trump—then a presidential candidate—promised a strategic Bitcoin reserve, Bitcoin gained 4% during the event but quickly dropped 20% afterward. This decline coincided with a global risk-off movement triggered by the unwinding of the yen carry trade.

This year’s conference, featuring Vice President J.D. Vance, might break the trend as institutional interest in Bitcoin grows. However, Bitcoin still faces both psychological and technical challenges given its historical performance around conference dates. Market participants often treat these events as “sell the news” moments, leading to cautious sentiment.