Galaxy Research Reduces Clarity Act Passage Odds to 30% Amid Senate Deadline
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Written by
Simonas Brazionis - Updated 2026-07-25 12:38:49
Galaxy Research has reduced its projection for the Clarity Act's passage into law by 2026, lowering the odds from 50% to 30%. This adjustment reflects the limited time remaining before the Senate's August recess, as efforts to advance the crypto market structure bill intensify.
Alex Thorn, head of research at Galaxy, indicated that the revised estimate is due to the narrowing legislative window. Although the Clarity Act's text was recently released by Senate negotiators, Thorn observed that the necessary coalition for its passage was not evident and suggested that a significant legislative effort would be required for the bill to reach the President's desk.
Legislative Hurdles and Concerns
Galaxy had previously reduced its passage odds to 50% in late June, citing concerns about the Senate calendar. Since then, a 616-page draft has been issued, combining work from the Senate Banking and Agriculture committees, alongside an ethics package and other amendments. However, seven Democratic senators expressed that the current version remains insufficient, advocating for enhanced provisions concerning ethics, consumer protections, conflicts of interest, and illicit finance.
Industry Calls for Action
In response, the Crypto Council for Innovation, Blockchain Association, and The Digital Chamber jointly urged Senate Majority Leader John Thune and Minority Leader Chuck Schumer to prioritize floor consideration of the Clarity Act. These organizations stated that the legislation would establish federal regulations for digital assets and reinforce consumer safeguards, advocating for the progression of the legislative process.
Anthony Scaramucci, founder of SkyBridge Capital, also asserted that the procedural aspects of the bill presented the primary obstacle, noting the brief period available to lawmakers before the August recess to initiate the floor process. Thorn reiterated the urgency in his report, stating that the time for incremental negotiations had passed and that the bill required a decisive effort and leadership for its passage.
