Massive $1.5M Wager of Bitcoin ETF’s Fate

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Redditors shared their reactions to the betting, with one remarking that they were on the verge of depleting their child’s college savings, while another likened the bet to “betting dollars to win dimes.

Amidst the anticipation within the crypto community for the Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) verdict on spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) proposals, certain traders are leveraging this period of uncertainty to speculate on the outcome by Jan. 15.

On the Polymarket platform, which operates on the Polygon network, traders are staking their predictions with either “Yes” or “No” on the approval of the Bitcoin ETF applications. As of now, bets totalling around $1.5 million have been placed, predominantly in favour of “Yes.”

The share value, indicative of the likelihood of a yes or no outcome, mirrors the volatility seen in the crypto market. Presently, a “Yes” share is priced at $0.84, whereas a “No” share stands at $0.20. A prominent participant using the alias “kiwi” possesses Yes shares worth approximately $440,000. Conversely, the leading holder for “No” has an investment of merely about $15,000.

As per Polymarket's guidelines, the market outcome will be deemed “Yes” if any spot Bitcoin ETF gains the SEC’s approval by Jan.15, 2024, at 11:59:59 PM ET. If not, it will default to “No.” Consequently, stakeholders will witness their gains or losses based on the stipulated deadline.

The platform stipulates that the SEC's official information will primarily determine the market's resolution. Yet, they also mentioned that a collective agreement from reputable sources might also influence the outcome.

In the Cryptocurrency subreddit, while some Redditors voiced their disapproval of the betting, others sprinkled in humour. One user, in particular, labelled the bet as “foolish” and equated it to “betting dollars to win dimes.” In contrast, another member shared their apprehension about potentially depleting their child's college fund, while yet another playfully expressed regret to their “crypto grandkids” for their impending actions.

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