Polymarket Traders Lose $270,000 Due to Pavel Durov’s Early Release
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Written by
Yana Levkovich - Updated 2024-09-02 18:56:22
French authorities no longer hold Telegram CEO Pavel Durov, and as of August 28, he was free on bond. As a result of the unexpected decision, bettors on Polymarket, a cryptocurrency-based prediction market, lost out on $270,000 in earnings.
Durov was formally charged on Wednesday and freed on bond after posting a 5 million euro bond and promising to remain in the nation and report to police twice a week.
The swift release contrasted with bettors' overall expectations, who believed extended detention was more likely. At one point, the odds of an August release were set in the mid-30% range, while a release before October was valued between 75% and 90%. The probability of an August release climbed to 50% just before French authorities announced he was out on bail.
Bets have “Yes” and “No” sides. If the prediction comes true, each share pays $1 in USDC, a stablecoin or cryptocurrency pegged to the U.S. dollar. If the prediction is wrong, the share pays out nothing.
Ultimately, by betting “No” on an August release and “No” for a release before October, bettors lost out on $270,000. Many probably thought French officials would detain Durov for as long as possible.
Bettor expected France to take additional steps to keep him jailed because of his considerable riches and various nationalities, including citizenship in the United Arab Emirates. This nation does not extradite its nationals.
Conversely, Champ, a user who owned the most significant investment on the “Yes” side of both contracts, accurately predicted that Durov would be launched in August and before October.
When the initial bet value is added to Champ's total earnings, which came to $56,638 overall from their combined wins of $26,138 across the two contracts.
