Bet On Crypto

Will Bitcoin Price See a Christmas Rally? Experts Bet on Early 2026

November 2025 was one of the most volatile months for the crypto market, with Bitcoin losing more than 30% of its value. The Fear and Greed Index hit an all-time low of 9, signaling extreme market fear. However, some analysts believe this correction could be a mid-cycle reset rather than a full trend reversal, and the possibility of a Christmas rally is still being debated.

While some see weakening retail demand and thin liquidity as signs of a prolonged bear market, others believe there’s potential for a super cycle beginning in early 2026. The key to Bitcoin’s future price action will be global liquidity. If liquidity conditions improve in the new year, Bitcoin could regain momentum.

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Bitcoin's Struggles Amid Institutional Influence

The sharp drop in Bitcoin’s price has raised questions about whether the bear market has officially begun or if it’s just a temporary setback. Despite the bearish sentiment, Bitcoin's price stabilized around $90,000, providing some hope for a recovery.

The market has seen a shift with institutional investors playing a bigger role, particularly through Bitcoin ETFs. These flows of institutional capital have reduced the influence of retail traders, creating a more complex market driven by large-scale capital. This shift has resulted in thinner liquidity, making the market more vulnerable to volatility.

The Path Forward

Experts like Eneko Knorr, CEO of Stabolut, believe the next few months could be decisive for the crypto market. He suggests that December and January might determine whether Bitcoin enters a new phase of growth, or if the market remains stagnant. According to Phillip Lord, President of Bakkt International, Bitcoin still has room to rise, especially if it can hold the $83,000 to $86,000 range.

Liquidity remains a critical factor. Michael Howell, a liquidity expert, explains that Bitcoin’s price movements are increasingly influenced by global liquidity rather than the halving cycle. When global liquidity increases, Bitcoin usually sees an upward trend, and the current drop may signal a potential future decline in liquidity.

Conclusion

While November’s performance has been disappointing, Bitcoin’s long-term outlook remains positive, provided liquidity conditions stabilize. The key drivers will be liquidity flows and institutional participation, but investors should remain cautious during this uncertain period. If global liquidity improves in 2026, Bitcoin could regain its upward momentum.

Simonas Brazionis

Blockchain Expert

Simonas is a crypto and blockchain expert with 6 years of experience. Passionate about the industry he educates others on blockchain technology, and continuously expands his knowledge. He has helped many newcomers understand crypto, navigate investments, and stay informed about trends like DeFi and NFTs.