Bitcoin’s Fair Value Could Reach $270,000, Suggests New Bitwise Liquidity Model

A fresh analysis from Bitwise argues that Bitcoin is trading far below where it should be based on the amount of money circulating in the global economy.

According to Bitwise, Bitcoin’s “fair value” sits near $270,000, far above its current market price. The firm bases this estimate on worldwide liquidity trends rather than chart patterns or ETF inflows. By this measure, Bitcoin is undervalued by roughly 66 percent.

Bitwise highlights that the last two years saw one of the biggest financial expansions in modern history. Governments pushed massive fiscal programs into the system:

• the US issued nearly $2 trillion in Treasuries yearly,
• Japan deployed a $110 billion stimulus package,
• China released a $1.4 trillion investment program,
• Canada returned to quantitative easing,
• and more than 320 global rate cuts boosted money supply.

As a result, global M2 climbed to $137 trillion, an all-time high. Bitwise argues that Bitcoin has not yet caught up to this expansion. In contrast, gold appears overvalued by around 75 percent, according to their model.

The report also notes sharp weakness in Ethereum’s corporate-treasury demand. Firms that once accumulated ETH to support the “DAT” trend have dramatically slowed their purchases. In November, they acquired just 370,000 ETH, down from nearly 2 million ETH in August.

Bitwise describes this not as a temporary decline but as a structural contraction. Lower mNAV values and limited purchasing power among smaller treasury firms have pushed many to the sidelines. Only a few large entities remain active, with Bitmine, led by strategist Tom Lee, now holding more ETH than 68 other treasury companies combined.

The consolidation looks unhealthy: premiums are disappearing, deal flow is falling, and weaker DAT firms may not survive. While total buying still exceeds Ethereum’s monthly supply, the shrinking list of active participants signals that the trend is under strain.