Strategy Overhauls Investor Metrics Amid Shift to Digital Credit
Strategy has introduced a new set of investor metrics, reflecting a significant shift in its financial strategy. This move comes as the company transitions to preferred-equity “digital credit,” necessitating updated metrics to provide a clearer picture of common shareholder ownership of Bitcoin.
Executive chairman Michael Saylor emphasized the need for a new financial language within Bitcoin capital markets. Chaitanya Jain, head of investor relations, noted that the business's evolution from convertible debt to digital credit, driven by investor demand for clarity, required this update to the metrics.
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Central to the new metrics is “Net Bitcoin per share,” which quantifies the amount of Bitcoin remaining for common shareholders after accounting for $22.3 billion in debt and preferred claims. The company redefined its mNAV (market value to net asset value) to 1.0x par and recast “amplification” as an approximately 1.5x equity multiplier.
The “net reserve” is approximately $35 billion. This figure is calculated by subtracting $22.2 billion in senior claims, comprising $15.5 billion in preferred stock and $6.8 billion in out-of-the-money convertible debt, from Strategy's $57 billion Bitcoin holdings, which amount to 843,775 BTC, and $3.2 billion in cash.
Dividing this residual amount by a new fully diluted share count yields “net Bitcoin per share.” Strategy reported that “net Bitcoin per share” increased from $13 (44,000 sats) at the close of 2020 to $95 (143,000 sats), representing a 43% compound annual growth rate.
New Credit Gauges and Valuations
New credit gauges have also been introduced, including a “hurdle rate” of about 10.8%, which represents Strategy's effective cost of credit, and a break-even rate near 3.2%. A “flow rate” of approximately -11% estimates the Bitcoin price decline that would lead to reserves no longer covering debt and dividends.
MSTR stock traded at approximately $93 on Friday, below its 2024 peak. Second-quarter earnings are scheduled for July 30. The new mNAV formula indicates a 1.02x valuation, a change from the previous method based on gross Bitcoin per share, which suggested a discount. Adjusting for $22 billion in senior claims brings the share price to parity. This marks the latest guidance adjustment since the bear market commenced last October.
Digital Credit Framework and Strategy Shift
STRC, the flagship preferred share, is trading below its $100 par value. The firm adopted a “digital credit” framework in late June, which authorized the sale of up to $1.25 billion of Bitcoin. The stated purpose of this sale was to increase cash reserves, cover preferred dividends, and fund buybacks.
This decision represented a departure from Michael Saylor's previous “never sell” policy. However, the firm has raised cash by selling MSTR stock, not Bitcoin, which diluted common holders but preserved the 843,775 BTC stack. The firm's calculations suggest the structure remains viable if Bitcoin does not experience an annual decline exceeding 11% through the early 2030s. Bitcoin is currently trading around $64,000, approximately 50% below its peak.