Bitcoin price faces $77.7K support loss risk
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Written by
Simonas Brazionis - Updated 2026-11-04 01:22:08
Bitcoin's price is currently at risk of establishing $77,700 as a new resistance level. Recent analysis indicates that market entrants who acquired Bitcoin within the last one to three months are now experiencing an aggregate loss.
This group of speculative traders is particularly susceptible to short-term price fluctuations. Historically, their cost basis has acted as an upward-trending support during bull markets, but a breach could turn it into resistance.
Trader Onchain Realized Price Bands
Data from CryptoQuant shows that BTC/USD is trading below the realized price, or cost basis, for these recent investors. A CryptoQuant contributor noted that if Bitcoin falls below this level, it could act as resistance, as underwater traders might exit their positions at breakeven.
The Trader Onchain Realized Price Bands metric currently places this cost basis at $77,700, while BTC/USD is around $76,500. The Trader Realized Price has been consistently rising during Bitcoin‘s correction, narrowing the gap between the asset's price and its cost basis. BTC/USD has traded below this metric since August 19.
The Price Bands metric includes upper and lower trailing levels around the cost basis, set at predefined profit and loss margins. The nearest lower band to the cost basis represents a 12% aggregate loss, equivalent to $68,400. Bitcoin last fell through this band in early June, deviating up to 12.6% below it over the following month.
Short-Term Holder Realized Price
With Bitcoin trading below $77,000, it is also approaching the realized price of short-term holders (STHs), a broader group of speculative investors. This trend line typically functions as support during uptrends and resistance during downtrend reversals.
These STHs, who have held their BTC for up to 155 days, have a cost basis of $75,832 as of Tuesday. This corresponds to a 1.012 reading on the cohort’s Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) Ratio metric.
If the price falls below the MVRV breakeven point, which aligns with the STH realized price, the next significant psychological support level is an MVRV reading of 0.85. This level is characterized as an area of “tactical capitulation” or a “short trap.” Bitcoin last fell through the 0.85 MVRV level in early June before recovering it by mid-August.
