Coldcard Hack: Investigators Face Challenges in Quantifying Bitcoin Losses
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Written by
Simonas Brazionis - Updated 2026-08-11 12:18:15
The Coldcard hack has presented a challenge for crypto investigators attempting to quantify losses from self-custody wallets. Victim reports are crucial for establishing the total scale of the theft.
Blockchain analytics platform CryptoQuant has confirmed losses at 1,432 Bitcoin. However, other analysts have identified a greater amount of funds linked to the attack.
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Discrepancies in Loss Estimates
Galaxy Research and blockchain intelligence firm TRM Labs suggest a higher total. They differentiate between losses directly confirmed by victims and funds attributed through on-chain patterns. This distinction makes self-custody attacks difficult to measure precisely.
Unlike exchange hacks, there is no comprehensive list of affected accounts. Investigators must formulate estimates rather than definitive totals. This leads to discrepancies in reported loss figures. Unlike centralized platforms, such as the best crypto exchanges, self-custody wallets make it difficult to get a comprehensive list of affected accounts.
Galaxy Research reported its earlier estimate of up to 1,816 BTC as a potential figure, not a confirmed loss. As of Tuesday, Galaxy placed its high-confidence minimum at 1,730 Bitcoin. This figure could increase with additional victim reports.
Galaxy confirmed over 450 BTC directly from victim reports. These reports also aided in identifying other, previously unknown victims, accounting for more than 730 total BTC. The firm uses these reports to validate broader attack patterns.
Galaxy refrains from including funds that are suspected but not yet sufficiently verified. This cautious approach helps maintain the integrity of their estimates.
Methodologies for Quantifying Losses
TRM Labs stated that its independent tracing aligns with Galaxy's range. Its recent analysis estimated that attackers had drained approximately 1,816 BTC from over 5,200 addresses across four distinct waves. TRM Labs anticipates the estimate to continue rising before stabilizing.
CryptoQuant's approach starts with public victim reports, including wallet addresses or transaction IDs. They then cross-reference these with known on-chain patterns associated with the attack. This methodology places CryptoQuant's confirmed tally at 1,432 BTC.
CryptoQuant describes its tally as a baseline that could increase if more victims publicly disclose compromised addresses. The company exercises caution in identifying victims solely based on on-chain patterns. This avoids potential false positives and inflated estimates.
The firm noted that because the stolen Bitcoin belonged to individuals rather than a centralized entity, only what each victim publicly discloses can be confirmed. This highlights a key challenge in quantifying losses from self-custody hacks.
Challenges in Confirming Total Losses
It was emphasized that the total amount of stolen Bitcoin would remain an estimate. Investigators can only confirm what victims reveal. This inherent limitation makes a definitive total difficult to achieve.
Blockchain investigator ZachXBT publicly stated no plans to monitor or trace the incident. Additionally, Chainalysis has not conducted an independent tally of the losses. This further complicates efforts to get a comprehensive figure.
