Jobs Miss Ends Bitcoin’s Worst Streak – 57,000 Payrolls Break Etf Outflow Run and Push Btc Above 61,000
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Written by
Simonas Brazionis - Updated 2026-07-03 12:06:35
The U.S. economy added just 57,000 jobs in June, roughly half the 115,000 analysts expected and the weakest payrolls print since February 2025. Bitcoin responded immediately, climbing from $59,961 at the open to above $61,000 within hours of the report. Ethereum gained 4.8% to $1,720 and XRP rose 2.6%.
The jobs miss matters for crypto primarily through its effect on Federal Reserve rate expectations. A weaker labor market reduces the probability that Chair Kevin Warsh will raise rates at the next FOMC meeting. Markets had been pricing in a 28% chance of a hike. After the payrolls data, that probability fell noticeably.
Warsh had already softened the mood slightly on July 1, telling the ECB's forum in Sintra, Portugal, that inflation risks had come down. That comment – his first notably dovish signal since taking the chair – combined with the weak jobs print to produce crypto's strongest session in two weeks.
| Market Metric | Value | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin price (Jul 3 open) | $59,961 | Up 2.4% from prior day |
| Bitcoin peak Jul 3 | $61,270 | Up 4.1% over 24h |
| Ethereum Jul 3 | $1,720 | Up 4.8% |
| XRP Jul 3 | $1.10 | Up 2.6% |
| June jobs added | 57,000 | vs 115,000 expected |
| June unemployment rate | 4.2% | Down from 4.3% |
| ETF inflows Jul 2 | $221 million | Ended 10-day outflow streak |
| Fidelity FBTC inflows | $166 million | Led ETF recovery |
| BlackRock IBIT Jul 2 | -$40 million | Only major ETF still negative |
| Short liquidations 24h | $281 million | Nearly double long liquidations |
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Why This Bounce is Different From the Others
The ETF inflow data is the most meaningful signal. July 2 saw $221 million flow into spot Bitcoin ETFs – the strongest inflow day in two months and the first positive day after a 10-day outflow streak. Fidelity's FBTC led with $166 million.
Notably, BlackRock's IBIT was the only major ETF still in outflow at minus $40 million. That divergence matters. IBIT led the selloff in June with $3 billion in single-month outflows. If IBIT turns positive in the coming days, it would signal that the institutional money that drove the June crash has stopped leaving.
Short liquidations totaling $281 million – nearly double the longs – confirm that the move higher was forced rather than purely organic. Trapped short sellers amplified the bounce. That dynamic reduces somewhat but does not eliminate the bullish interpretation.
What Citi and Jpmorgan Are Saying
Citi cut its 12-month Bitcoin target from $112,000 to $82,000 this week, citing persistent ETF outflows and the CLARITY Act still stalled in the Senate. Its bear case puts Bitcoin at $53,000.
JPMorgan separately said Strategy's new Bitcoin sales policy adds two-way risk to crypto markets and argued the company should use equity issuance to build cash reserves rather than authorizing Bitcoin sales. The bank's concern is that even a small authorized sale program creates an overhang that damps institutional buying interest.
What to Watch
Friday's session was half-day due to the July 4 holiday. The full market test comes Monday July 7 when US markets reopen. Whether IBIT resumes outflows or turns positive is the single most important daily data point to track.
Bitcoin needs to close above $62,000 on a full trading day to suggest a genuine trend change rather than a relief bounce. Traders monitoring positions across the best crypto exchanges should watch open interest – a sustained rebuild from current lows would indicate the market is positioning for recovery, not just covering shorts.
