Bitcoin Is Approaching a Level That Ended Every Major Bear Market in History

This week, Bitcoin fell to around $63,500 – its lowest point since February. Something important is happening underneath the surface. Bitcoin is now trading close to its 200-week moving average, a technical level that has marked the absolute bottom of every previous Bitcoin bear market.

The 200-week moving average is calculated by averaging Bitcoin's weekly closing price over the past 200 weeks. Because it looks back nearly four years, it moves very slowly and is considered one of the most reliable long-term support levels in crypto.

In October 2015, Bitcoin hit this level before rallying 9,000%. In December 2018 it held as support before the 2019 recovery. In November 2022, during the FTX collapse, it was tested and held again. Each time it marked the point where long-term buyers stepped in.

Standard Chartered analyst Geoff Kendrick has outlined three specific conditions before calling a confirmed bottom. First, Bitcoin ETF inflows must return for at least five consecutive days. Second, the Federal Reserve needs to signal rate cuts at the June or July meeting.

Third, Bitcoin dominance must fall below 52-54% while ETF flows are rising – that signals capital broadening into altcoins, which happens in later recovery stages. Kendrick's year-end target remains $100,000. If you are looking for a platform to buy Bitcoin, our comparison of the best crypto exchanges shows the top options available right now.

Kendrick also warned that a temporary drop to $50,000 is possible before the recovery. But he added publicly this week: “When we look back at the end of 2026 with Bitcoin at $100,000, we will say this was the buying zone we all wanted.” If you are completely new to this space and want to understand what cryptocurrency is before making any decisions, that is always the best place to start.

Watch $61,500 on the downside – that was the intraday low hit earlier this week. A daily close below it opens the path toward $55,000. On the upside, $73,000 is what Bitcoin needs to reclaim to shift the structure back to neutral.

June 17 is also a key date – the Fed's first meeting under new chair Kevin Warsh. Any signal of rate cuts coming sooner than expected would be the most powerful short-term catalyst for a Bitcoin recovery. Markets are watching that meeting very closely.