Bitcoin Storms Back to $64K as Weak US Jobs Data Reignites Rate-Cut Bets

Bitcoin opened the new week with its most convincing move in a fortnight, surging to a two-week high of $63,900 in overnight trading on July 6 before easing back toward $62,600. The trigger, though, had nothing to do with crypto itself.

A soft US employment report sent traders scrambling to price in earlier Federal Reserve rate cuts, and risk assets caught a bid. After a punishing June that dragged bitcoin to 21-month lows, the rebound offered the first genuine glimmer of relief.

A Labor-Market Stumble Does the Heavy Lifting

The June payrolls figure landed far below expectations. The US economy added just 57,000 jobs against forecasts near 113,000, and the previously reported totals for April and May were revised lower by a combined 74,000.

Markets treated the miss as evidence that the labor market is cooling fast enough to force the Fed's hand. Treasury yields slipped, the dollar weakened, and the cost of holding a non-yielding asset like bitcoin fell — helping it punch out of the bearish channel that defined late June.

The advance was then supercharged by a textbook short squeeze. As prices climbed, traders betting on further declines were forced to buy back their positions, and Coinglass data pointed to roughly $450 million in short liquidations over a single 24-hour window. That kind of reflexive move can travel fast, but it says more about positioning than fresh conviction. For readers weighing how macro shifts ripple through the largest cryptocurrency, our deep dive on bitcoin lays out the mechanics.

Institutions Still Aren't Convinced

Beneath the green candles, the picture is far more cautious. Spot bitcoin ETFs just recorded their eighth consecutive week of outflows, with roughly $526 million leaving last week alone and the eight-week tally now above $8 billion.

The total crypto market capitalization edged less than 1% higher to $2.23 trillion, and the Crypto Fear and Greed Index — although it climbed to 24 — stayed lodged in extreme-fear territory. Wall Street sentiment has soured in parallel: Citigroup recently cut its 12-month bitcoin target from $112,000 to $82,000, pointing to a structural cooling in institutional appetite.

The bulls have not vanished, however. Standard Chartered is holding firm on its $100,000 year-end forecast, arguing that a decisive Fed pivot could reverse the flows in short order. Traders trying to position for that turn have been re-examining which platforms they use to buy and store their coins.

What to Watch

From here, data trumps mood. Minutes from last month's FOMC meeting arrive on July 8 and should show how seriously policymakers are entertaining cuts, while the next US inflation print on July 14 could either cement or shatter the easing story.

A short squeeze rarely manufactures durable demand on its own, so the rally's staying power depends on ETF outflows stabilizing and organic buyers stepping back in. Ether flashed an encouraging signal of its own, briefly topping $1,800 before slipping to $1,750 and locking in a weekly gain above 12%.

Yet with liquidity running thin at the start of the third quarter, volatility can swing hard in either direction. For now, bitcoin's next decisive move looks likely to be dictated by Washington and the Fed rather than anything on the price chart.