Bitcoin On-Chain Activity Peaks in 2026 Amid Coldcard Exploit, K33 Flags Potential Bottoming Pattern
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Written by
Simonas Brazionis - Updated 2026-08-05 12:18:33
Bitcoin's on-chain activity has reached its highest level in 2026, coinciding with the ongoing Coldcard exploit. This surge in coin movement has led K33 to suggest a potential market bottoming pattern. The research firm noted that this pattern has historically been observed around local market tops and bottoms.
Galaxy Research reported an increase in the number of attackers and stolen funds related to the exploit. The firm now estimates at least 15 attackers have exploited the vulnerability, with losses exceeding $130 million, or approximately 2,000 BTC. K33 independently estimated that around 1,596 BTC has been stolen from roughly 7,300 addresses.
Coldcard Exploit Drives Bitcoin On-Chain Activity
Vetle Lunde, K33 Head of Research, stated that approximately 890,000 BTC has been moved in the past seven days. This marks the highest active supply recorded this year. This acceleration occurred despite subdued price action, with Bitcoin experiencing its narrowest 30-day high-to-low trading range since 2023. Realized volatility also fell below that of the Nasdaq 100.
Lunde attributed the spike in transaction activity primarily to the Coldcard attacks. He suggested it may have also increased concerns about other hardware wallets like Ledger and Trezor. This could lead some owners to consider centralized custodians or multisignature setups.
Historical Precedent for Market Turning Points
K33's report indicated that elevated on-chain activity has frequently preceded local market turning points. Periods where the seven-day active supply entered the top 10% of observations relative to its rolling 365-day history coincided with local tops and bottoms. This was observed during the 2022 bear market, the 2024 and 2025 bull markets, and the 2026 bear market.
Lunde explained that market declines often prompt holders to move coins to exchanges to mitigate losses. Rallies encourage both fear of missing out among buyers and profit-taking by existing holders. Two of this year's largest spikes in active supply aligned with selloffs in February and June. A late April increase was likely due to routine transfers and address rotations rather than exchange-related flows.
