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Bitcoin Likely to Stay Above $50,000 in This Cycle – Here’s Why

Bitcoin is unlikely to drop below $50,000, let alone fall to $35,000, according to a prominent crypto analyst. The largest cryptocurrency by market cap is currently trading nervously below $88,000, under significant bearish pressure.

Some analysts have declared the bear market officially here and are preparing for a potential buying opportunity near the market bottom. However, predicting the exact bottom or top in Bitcoin’s four-year cycle is difficult, with many variables influencing the outcome. There’s also the question of whether the bear market has truly begun, or if the bull market has simply been delayed.

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$35k Bitcoin is Unlikely

In a detailed tweet, crypto analyst Skydolic dismissed the possibility of Bitcoin reaching $35,000. He stated:

“…I’m seeing people talking about $35k levels next year, and that’s absolute rubbish. For Bitcoin to retrace 75%, it would have to fully expand, which didn’t happen in this cycle. These kinds of retraces are only possible when the level of expansion supports such a contraction.”

He pointed out that the 1-month RSI shows Bitcoin has barely even entered the overbought zone for the first time, unlike previous cycles where Bitcoin pushed into the upper oversold band. Skydolic also noted that Bitcoin has never breached the lower Bollinger Bands during its market bottoms, with the current lower Bollinger Band around $55,000.

Skydolic’s Analysis and the Bottom Scenario

According to Skydolic, the worst-case scenario for Bitcoin in this cycle would be a bottom near $55,000, much higher than other analysts' estimates of $45,000 to $35,000. He attributed this to two factors:

  1. Bitcoin has never breached the lower 1-month Bollinger Bands during market bottoms.
  2. The recent end of the Quantitative Tightening policy in the U.S.

The Future Outlook

Bollinger Bands (BB) are an important tool for analyzing volatile assets like Bitcoin, as they help predict market booms and crashes. However, Bitcoin’s unpredictable nature often defies previous trends. The fourth quarter of 2025 has been the worst in Bitcoin's history, and there is speculation that the traditional four-year cycle may soon lose its relevance, or at least be extended.

Simonas Brazionis

Blockchain Expert

Simonas is a crypto and blockchain expert with 6 years of experience. Passionate about the industry he educates others on blockchain technology, and continuously expands his knowledge. He has helped many newcomers understand crypto, navigate investments, and stay informed about trends like DeFi and NFTs.